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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–11 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee
@
Missouri
|
-13.6 | 144.9 | 11% | 72–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
NC State
|
+5.4 | 149.1 | 69% | 87–83 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Florida State
|
+3.7 | 153.4 | 63% | 76–84 | ✓ |
UCF
@
West Virginia
|
-5.3 | 139.0 | 31% | 67–77 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Michigan State
|
+9.6 | 155.1 | 81% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Texas A&M
|
+11.7 | 146.9 | 86% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Davidson
|
+9.7 | 140.6 | 81% | 53–68 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
+11.1 | 149.3 | 84% | 66–81 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Massachusetts
|
+2.1 | 143.6 | 58% | 52–74 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Toledo
|
+0.1 | 149.0 | 50% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Ohio
|
+2.4 | 154.0 | 59% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Western Michigan
|
-1.2 | 142.5 | 46% | 58–77 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
Central Michigan
|
+2.0 | 139.2 | 57% | 60–62 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+1.9 | 141.8 | 57% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Southern Indiana
@
Morehead State
|
+17.2 | 137.2 | 94% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Northern Illinois
|
+0.7 | 151.0 | 53% | 70–63 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
-0.8 | 147.9 | 47% | 66–85 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
BYU
|
+3.8 | 160.2 | 64% | 71–78 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Utah State
|
+0.7 | 147.0 | 53% | 63–68 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Texas Tech
|
+4.5 | 152.9 | 66% | 81–82 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Wake Forest
|
+4.9 | 145.7 | 67% | 58–91 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Wisconsin
|
+7.6 | 131.4 | 76% | 70–74 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Boise State
|
+17.1 | 142.8 | 94% | 50–82 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Saint Mary's
|
+9.5 | 129.2 | 81% | 66–70 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Nevada
|
+14.8 | 144.1 | 91% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Army
|
-0.2 | 132.4 | 49% | 85–54 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+1.9 | 141.7 | 57% | 65–71 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Penn State
|
-7.9 | 160.0 | 24% | 89–90 | ✗ |
Presbyterian
@
Winthrop
|
+12.2 | 149.6 | 87% | 78–55 | ✗ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-8.1 | 148.1 | 23% | 59–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.