Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BYU -175 BAY +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -4.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -2.4 (+4.6) | 155.1 (-6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -2.5 (+4.5) | 157.6 (-8.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -3.1 (+3.9) | 157.2 (-8.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -3.5 (+3.5) | 155.3 (-6.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | BYU 99 – 94 BAY |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BYU 93 – 89 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2024 | BAY 81 – 72 BYU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#9) | 17.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#41) | 2.48 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#38) | 3.07 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#49) | 0.616 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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