Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BYU -175 BAY +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -1.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -2.7 (+1.3) | 141.3 (+40.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -2.3 (+1.7) | 145.3 (+36.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -2.2 (+1.8) | 144.8 (+37.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -2.1 (+1.9) | 143.5 (+38.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | BYU 99 – 94 BAY |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BYU 78 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2024 | BAY 81 – 72 BYU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#29) | 16.7 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#66) | 2.26 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#63) | 2.88 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#94) | 0.595 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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