Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | BAY +142 BYU -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +5 | 193 | Lost |
| Massey | BYU -2.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -1.6 (-3.4) | 158.7 (+34.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -0.3 (-4.7) | 159.2 (+33.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -0.2 (-4.8) | 157.0 (+36.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -2.3 (-2.7) | 157.1 (+35.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2025 | BYU 93 – 89 BAY |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BYU 78 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2024 | BAY 81 – 72 BYU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#43) | 18.8 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | 3.17 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#53) | 3.97 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#74) | 0.627 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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