Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -235 BYU +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -0.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.4 (+7.6) | 155.8 (-2.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.0 (+6.0) | 155.4 (-2.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.7 (+7.3) | 155.2 (-2.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.9 (+7.1) | 155.0 (-2.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | BYU 99 – 94 BAY |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BYU 93 – 89 BAY |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BYU 78 – 71 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#10) | 22.0 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#32) | 2.58 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#33) | 3.37 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#46) | 0.587 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 2.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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