Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–4 on winners spread MAE 7.5 19 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia @ Virginia Tech +1.7 124.2 56% 41–75 ✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana -0.5 145.0 48% 77–72 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +7.1 157.1 74% 75–68 ✗
Morgan State @ Delaware State +8.9 148.1 79% 58–80 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +3.3 143.5 62% 76–72 ✗
Nicholls @ New Orleans -4.4 155.6 34% 89–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Charleston +16.6 154.4 93% 57–65 ✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +7.3 124.4 75% 67–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +13.8 139.5 90% 61–72 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -0.8 136.3 47% 56–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +20.7 126.2 97% 46–61 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +3.1 163.9 61% 67–75 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +8.6 146.3 78% 68–79 ✓
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +3.1 134.5 61% 83–74 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +7.1 150.3 74% 60–61 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +8.5 127.9 78% 65–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas +8.2 141.7 77% 56–62 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +4.4 135.2 65% 74–80 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +6.3 145.6 72% 62–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.