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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–11 on winners spread MAE 9.2 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Fairfield -12.6 136.9 13% 52–67 ✗
Illinois State @ Ball State +5.0 152.4 68% 66–82 ✓
Marist @ Canisius +7.4 147.1 75% 56–52 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana +4.9 154.5 67% 56–61 ✓
Samford @ Georgia +7.4 161.3 75% 75–79 ✓
Illinois @ Missouri +1.3 148.2 55% 78–81 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +14.0 127.2 90% 49–53 ✓
Belmont @ Lipscomb +0.9 151.0 53% 81–71 ✗
Clemson @ Alabama -7.2 131.7 26% 64–56 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -5.5 130.4 31% 74–71 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +25.6 151.9 99% 75–100 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Pepperdine +13.1 161.9 88% 89–84 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +13.2 153.2 89% 91–78 ✗
Oakland @ Michigan State +25.7 148.0 99% 91–109 ✓
Wright State @ Bowling Green +7.4 155.3 75% 85–67 ✗
Massachusetts @ Northeastern +0.9 162.8 53% 75–78 ✓
North Alabama @ Indiana +26.5 133.8 99% 52–87 ✓
Rhode Island @ Western Kentucky -0.1 152.8 50% 65–68 ✗
Richmond @ West Virginia +13.4 148.0 89% 71–87 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville +3.9 147.8 64% 84–90 ✓
Hampton @ VMI +8.1 144.2 77% 64–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Iowa +37.6 163.1 100% 53–106 ✓
Norfolk State @ UNC Greensboro +2.8 145.1 60% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ UIC +3.1 132.4 61% 77–66 ✗
Air Force @ Drake +14.6 122.2 91% 53–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Western Michigan +2.4 139.3 58% 71–63 ✗
Penn State @ Michigan +1.3 162.9 55% 58–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Kent State +17.8 145.3 95% 73–92 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Vanderbilt +35.8 166.8 100% 41–84 ✓
Jacksonville @ South Carolina State -7.8 147.4 24% 60–58 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +0.5 149.9 52% 67–81 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -12.6 161.4 13% 107–77 ✓
San Francisco @ California -8.0 127.0 23% 70–72 ✗
UMBC @ Coppin State -8.0 148.1 23% 66–49 ✓
Cleveland State @ Ohio State +28.4 143.8 100% 61–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Grand Canyon +6.7 157.1 73% 71–70 ✗
San José State @ Cal Poly +5.3 161.7 69% 71–73 ✓
Portland State @ Washington State +7.9 124.7 76% 60–69 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Tennessee Tech -1.4 123.4 45% 73–67 ✓
Mercer @ Georgia Southern -15.3 124.5 8% 77–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.