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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.1
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.9 | 142.0 | 74% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 143.2 | 90% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 138.3 | 67% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 152.3 | 45% | 97–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 132.9 | 80% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 142.2 | 87% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 142.2 | 64% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 129.5 | 86% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 147.2 | 64% | 81–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 155.5 | 82% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 148.7 | 79% | 53–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 146.7 | 57% | 91–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.8 | 148.3 | 85% | 75–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 154.7 | 36% | 86–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 155.2 | 85% | 67–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 130.4 | 61% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.4 | 144.4 | 90% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 145.6 | 86% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 143.4 | 69% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 150.4 | 57% | 92–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 142.5 | 68% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 146.6 | 63% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 154.4 | 45% | 85–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 138.7 | 46% | 84–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 140.3 | 61% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 141.2 | 77% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 145.9 | 39% | 89–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 145.2 | 29% | 68–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.3 | 148.1 | 89% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 146.0 | 82% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 124.5 | 89% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 138.6 | 72% | 94–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 148.4 | 81% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 145.8 | 78% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 132.2 | 56% | 62–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 153.4 | 57% | 91–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 143.7 | 63% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 166.7 | 84% | 94–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 140.9 | 83% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 137.8 | 53% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 140.3 | 74% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 141.1 | 84% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 147.0 | 72% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.5 | 147.4 | 88% | 81–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 144.5 | 85% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 154.8 | 63% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.