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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–10 on winners spread MAE 5.9 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +4.1 138.5 66% 76–91 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +14.2 140.0 89% 63–68 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +3.2 136.9 67% 62–66 ✓
USC @ Rutgers -1.6 156.0 48% 97–89 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +8.0 133.4 80% 56–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +12.4 141.0 87% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +5.8 143.6 73% 66–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +11.9 130.5 87% 55–67 ✓
Oklahoma @ Georgia +3.5 145.4 66% 81–75 ✗
UCF @ Kansas +9.2 151.8 84% 94–98 ✓
Syracuse @ SMU +9.1 151.0 82% 53–73 ✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado +3.3 148.4 62% 91–83 ✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +10.1 145.5 84% 75–98 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis -3.2 148.0 37% 86–76 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +9.7 150.7 84% 67–96 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +2.9 129.7 68% 59–64 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Duke +19.0 146.8 90% 70–78 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +11.6 145.7 87% 57–78 ✓
Indiana @ Oregon +4.1 141.8 69% 59–72 ✓
Iowa State @ BYU -0.2 154.3 48% 92–96 ✗
South Florida @ Wichita State +3.0 138.5 65% 68–73 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss +2.4 150.1 62% 80–83 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo -1.7 160.2 43% 85–90 ✗
Alabama State @ Texas Southern -0.3 136.7 48% 84–79 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Louis +4.7 139.4 70% 75–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +6.5 140.8 76% 63–70 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier -0.2 145.5 49% 89–87 ✓
North Carolina @ Wake Forest -4.2 145.0 35% 68–59 ✓
San José State @ New Mexico +13.4 148.8 86% 52–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +8.7 144.8 83% 59–64 ✓
Colorado @ Houston +14.6 127.7 89% 68–77 ✓
Texas @ Texas A&M +4.2 141.4 68% 94–89 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +7.8 147.4 80% 75–81 ✓
Fordham @ George Washington +8.6 144.2 82% 81–88 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +0.4 131.7 55% 62–52 ✗
Morgan State @ Howard +2.5 154.0 57% 91–90 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona -1.1 144.6 45% 65–77 ✗
Iowa @ Illinois +9.1 169.3 82% 94–106 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +9.4 140.8 85% 66–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State -0.7 134.2 50% 77–80 ✗
Baylor @ Texas Tech +5.2 142.8 73% 74–76 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +10.3 139.2 85% 73–75 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +5.2 142.4 72% 75–71 ✗
DePaul @ Creighton +10.2 143.0 86% 81–85 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +10.4 141.6 85% 70–75 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri +3.9 162.4 60% 73–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.