Anger is an energy. "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
48–19 on winners spread MAE 10.0 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Florida State +18.4 140.7 88% 57–91 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +6.0 142.3 74% 78–88 ✓
VMI @ Loyola Maryland +4.8 141.8 69% 67–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -4.7 144.2 30% 78–76 ✓
Stanford @ Grand Canyon -5.5 146.8 28% 71–78 ✗
Wagner @ Georgetown +9.0 126.5 76% 41–66 ✓
Manhattan @ Virginia +8.2 131.8 77% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +17.4 137.8 90% 54–83 ✓
Boise State @ Boston College -4.8 144.9 32% 61–63 ✗
North Dakota State @ Samford +10.4 154.5 83% 98–103 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +3.2 142.2 60% 85–80 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Alabama +13.9 131.9 85% 64–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Iowa +22.6 165.0 91% 77–110 ✓
Long Beach State @ UTEP +5.2 133.8 70% 44–70 ✓
Iowa State @ Dayton -0.2 142.9 53% 89–84 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Belmont +6.7 143.9 81% 77–63 ✗
Kansas @ Duke +9.4 142.2 78% 75–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine +5.9 137.3 71% 72–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Montana State +7.5 141.7 74% 59–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Utah +26.8 139.7 91% 48–94 ✓
California Baptist @ SMU +7.6 154.0 81% 77–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Arizona +0.4 133.5 57% 72–68 ✗
Grambling @ Cal Poly +6.7 144.3 75% 79–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ UC Santa Barbara +10.6 149.4 80% 51–67 ✓
Southern Utah @ UCLA +16.1 138.3 86% 43–88 ✓
Notre Dame @ Rutgers -1.1 149.2 48% 84–85 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ San José State -7.2 132.9 26% 64–69 ✗
Auburn @ North Carolina -2.6 166.1 46% 85–72 ✓
Furman @ Seattle U -2.0 138.2 43% 61–56 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington State +9.1 149.4 85% 73–84 ✓
Louisville @ Indiana -0.4 141.8 54% 89–61 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +4.4 143.0 74% 69–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Detroit Mercy -9.9 141.8 18% 81–75 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +6.1 148.5 66% 69–92 ✓
SE Louisiana @ North Dakota -2.0 137.3 45% 76–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Charleston +6.3 138.6 73% 64–79 ✓
UTSA @ Merrimack +0.6 132.6 50% 76–74 ✗
New Orleans @ Baylor +25.2 156.1 91% 60–91 ✓
Bryant @ Chattanooga +3.2 149.2 66% 76–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +11.9 143.2 83% 54–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Youngstown State +6.4 139.3 70% 73–62 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Charlotte +5.6 143.9 69% 75–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ Tennessee Tech +1.0 138.8 51% 75–90 ✓
Gonzaga @ West Virginia -6.5 144.6 24% 78–86 ✗
Colorado @ Iowa State +4.0 141.8 68% 71–99 ✓
Tulsa @ Georgia State +1.6 143.5 59% 71–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Bethune-Cookman -3.3 140.1 36% 79–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee +24.0 135.0 91% 35–78 ✓
NJIT @ Morehead State +4.8 132.2 75% 78–69 ✗
West Georgia @ North Dakota State +4.9 137.9 72% 61–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ App State -4.3 142.6 32% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Valparaiso +8.9 138.3 80% 82–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ Air Force +3.5 132.6 53% 63–61 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon +3.9 136.5 73% 68–78 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +3.9 146.2 62% 62–54 ✗
Canisius @ Robert Morris +16.5 138.1 90% 64–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Maryland +20.7 146.3 90% 67–91 ✓
Memphis @ Auburn +4.5 157.7 68% 76–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Austin Peay +4.6 141.1 71% 68–58 ✗
Providence @ Oklahoma +2.8 133.4 65% 77–79 ✓
Ball State @ Richmond +3.0 130.8 61% 60–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Virginia Tech -3.2 137.5 40% 70–60 ✓
Tulane @ Belmont +2.4 148.8 66% 66–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Western Illinois -3.1 138.1 37% 86–75 ✓
Creighton @ Texas A&M +5.3 138.9 77% 73–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +25.2 149.0 91% 61–81 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +15.2 154.6 87% 79–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.