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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–11 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina State
@
Duquesne
|
+8.8 | 146.6 | 79% | 71–96 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Marshall
|
+13.0 | 141.2 | 86% | 65–91 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Saint Francis
|
+6.4 | 142.1 | 72% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Portland
@
Kent State
|
+12.2 | 152.4 | 84% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
South Florida
|
+0.8 | 144.7 | 45% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Western Illinois
@
UCF
|
+3.4 | 149.5 | 46% | 37–70 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Coppin State
|
+1.0 | 147.1 | 48% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+1.7 | 138.9 | 57% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Charleston
|
+1.4 | 145.3 | 53% | 90–92 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Hofstra
|
+14.1 | 154.6 | 87% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Charlotte
|
+17.4 | 142.9 | 89% | 47–80 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Liberty
|
-2.9 | 146.9 | 43% | 63–79 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Georgia
|
+10.0 | 145.5 | 80% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Florida
|
+14.1 | 146.1 | 86% | 76–74 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Minnesota
|
+5.7 | 137.1 | 64% | 69–53 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Houston
|
+17.5 | 140.4 | 88% | 45–83 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Baylor
|
+25.5 | 154.7 | 91% | 62–95 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
TCU
|
+9.0 | 141.1 | 79% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Texas Tech
|
— | — | — | 55–64 | — |
Jacksonville State
@
UIC
|
— | — | — | 60–67 | — |
Wofford
@
Drake
|
+13.3 | 144.7 | 84% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Belmont
@
Lipscomb
|
+6.5 | 147.6 | 73% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Central Arkansas
|
+3.1 | 146.8 | 64% | 71–82 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Utah
|
+16.0 | 133.0 | 86% | 58–70 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Florida State
|
— | — | — | 79–72 | — |
Butler
@
Penn State
|
+6.4 | 149.8 | 75% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Creighton
|
+20.3 | 147.5 | 90% | 65–94 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Illinois
|
+24.3 | 143.1 | 91% | 65–103 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Tennessee State
|
+17.2 | 145.4 | 88% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Denver
|
+5.8 | 131.8 | 67% | 73–69 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Utah State
|
+9.3 | 147.5 | 81% | 74–96 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Colorado State
|
+9.6 | 134.9 | 81% | 52–77 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Air Force
|
+7.8 | 139.9 | 76% | 73–69 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Chicago State
|
+9.9 | 139.0 | 84% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-6.9 | 139.1 | 25% | 60–52 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
UCLA
|
+13.9 | 146.8 | 86% | 56–86 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Washington
|
+7.9 | 138.5 | 77% | 67–78 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Hawai'i
|
+2.1 | 131.3 | 47% | 62–59 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
Providence
|
+13.3 | 154.5 | 85% | 76–100 | ✓ |
App State
@
Louisville
|
+0.1 | 142.5 | 42% | 61–60 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Georgetown
|
+4.4 | 144.5 | 67% | 75–63 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.