Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -188 YALE +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -1.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.9 (-5.9) | 123.8 (-2.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -0.8 (-2.2) | 126.4 (-5.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -2.1 (-5.1) | 131.3 (-10.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -4.4 (-7.4) | 128.5 (-7.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#225) | 6.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#128) | 1.43 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#133) | 2.06 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#131) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 84.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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