Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -1000 WIU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +33 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -2.4 (+30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-48.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.6 (+30.4) | 146.7 (-39.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.0 (+29.0) | 140.6 (-33.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.4 (+29.6) | 149.5 (-42.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -3.9 (+29.1) | 151.9 (-44.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#269) | 4.1 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#323) | 2.80 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#320) | 3.89 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.200 (#305) | 0.769 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 20.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 9.3% |
| ORB% | 47.7% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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