Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -250 APP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -2.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.4 (-1.4) | 141.5 (-20.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.3 (-0.7) | 143.7 (-22.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.1 (-1.1) | 142.5 (-21.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-13 | 10-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#321) | -0.5 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#356) | 0.38 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.45 (#351) | 0.44 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.062 (#318) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 14.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 84.1% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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