Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -350 WEB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -13.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -12.9 (+12.1) | 133.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -12.1 (+12.9) | 130.1 (-1.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -9.6 (+15.4) | 134.9 (-5.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#217) | -4.4 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#44) | -0.37 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#44) | -0.54 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#31) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.1% | 17.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 40.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.6% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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