Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -2500 SCST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +25 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -13.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -8.8 (+16.2) | 146.6 (+20.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -9.3 (+15.7) | 147.9 (+19.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -10.2 (+14.8) | 147.5 (+19.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 16-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 84.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#121) | -0.8 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#175) | -0.64 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#170) | -0.82 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#131) | 0.562 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 8.0% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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