Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -1600 TNTC +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +26 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -23.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -15.2 (+10.8) | 140.9 (+15.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -13.0 (+13.0) | 141.2 (+14.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#109) | -9.6 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#233) | -0.77 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#194) | -1.28 (#299) |
| RPI | — | 0.125 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 32.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.62 | 0.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 11.0% | 33.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 3.8% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 55.3% | 57.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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