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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
4–3 on winners
spread MAE 14.1
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Montana State
@
Long Beach State
|
+7.9 | 142.7 | 78% | 70–57 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Yale
|
+12.5 | 140.4 | 84% | 51–80 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+5.6 | 140.6 | 71% | 85–94 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Saint Mary's
|
— | — | — | 33–63 | — |
Eastern Washington
@
Hawai'i
|
+10.3 | 136.0 | 78% | 51–71 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
UMBC
|
+2.4 | 149.3 | 57% | 94–64 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Boston College
|
+6.6 | 145.0 | 72% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Villanova
|
+14.0 | 143.2 | 87% | 50–60 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.