Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AF -500 ETAM +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -13.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -9.8 (-13.8) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.5 (-12.5) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -7.8 (-11.8) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#178) | -2.4 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#157) | -0.87 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#160) | -1.13 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#69) | 0.125 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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