Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -8000 MONM +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +38 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -32.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -33.5 (+4.5) | 142.5 (+25.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -24.0 (+14.0) | 145.0 (+23.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -24.3 (+13.7) | 143.1 (+24.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -34.1 (+3.9) | 141.7 (+26.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#17) | -11.6 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#134) | -0.61 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#127) | -0.89 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#216) | 0.562 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 33.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 16.1% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 31.8% |
| ORB% | 43.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.5% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 36.4% |
Game Analysis
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