Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -600 LAF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -5.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -1.7 (+2.3) | 138.9 (-16.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.9 (+1.1) | 137.0 (-15.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -1.4 (+2.6) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 4, 2025 | JOES 85 – 76 LAF |
| Nov 7, 2023 | JOES 81 – 60 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#280) | -0.2 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#298) | -0.60 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#302) | -0.78 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#31) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 20.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.19 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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