Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +33 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -36.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -34.3 (-1.3) | 153.0 (+4.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -32.9 (+0.1) | 148.7 (+8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -25.5 (+7.5) | 154.7 (+2.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#3) | -10.2 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#113) | 0.09 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#108) | -0.02 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#131) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 30.5% |
| ORB% | 48.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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