Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -1000 FAU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -15.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -19.3 (-21.3) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -14.1 (-16.1) | 146.1 (+3.9) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#60) | 1.0 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#83) | -0.22 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#82) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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