Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -2500 ORU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +38 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -21.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -22.8 (+15.2) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -23.2 (+14.8) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -17.5 (+20.5) | 140.4 (-12.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 18-0 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 11-0 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#4) | 4.8 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#53) | -0.32 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#50) | -0.38 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#11) | 0.625 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.1% | 7.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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