Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -4000 STO +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +24 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -16.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -15.2 (+8.8) | 152.3 (+23.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -14.1 (+9.9) | 153.5 (+22.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -13.3 (+10.7) | 154.5 (+21.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -14.1 (+9.9) | 150.1 (+25.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | PROV 76 – 49 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#150) | -4.0 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#103) | 0.05 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#122) | -0.13 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#216) | 0.679 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 37.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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