Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -2500 NORF +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -15.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -19.1 (+10.9) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -17.4 (+12.6) | 144.6 (-2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -13.9 (+16.1) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#28) | 4.7 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#64) | -0.40 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#58) | -0.56 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.771 (#27) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 11.5% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.8% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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