Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -138 RICH +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +2 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -3.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.0 (+1.0) | 149.9 (+32.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.0 (+2.0) | 149.3 (+32.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.4 (+0.6) | 145.3 (+36.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 11-2 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#229) | 5.1 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#166) | 0.72 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#166) | 1.00 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#31) | 0.500 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.7% | 32.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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