← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina Upstate
@
Tennessee
|
+24.4 | 139.1 | 91% | 52–96 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
LSU
|
+25.8 | 145.0 | 91% | 49–89 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Troy
|
+7.8 | 137.2 | 78% | 57–66 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
East Tennessee State
|
+10.2 | 140.3 | 83% | 69–67 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Hartford
|
+2.3 | 155.0 | 58% | 81–66 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Towson
|
+12.5 | 134.1 | 87% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
South Florida
|
+1.4 | 129.5 | 55% | 51–60 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Cincinnati
|
+16.2 | 131.4 | 88% | 50–77 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Wake Forest
|
+14.5 | 152.3 | 88% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Furman
@
North Carolina
|
+11.0 | 158.4 | 82% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Clemson
|
+7.4 | 148.1 | 75% | 76–89 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Yale
|
-1.9 | 144.6 | 40% | 69–60 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+10.9 | 148.5 | 86% | 82–69 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
UAB
|
+22.8 | 142.4 | 91% | 61–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Duke
|
+24.1 | 156.0 | 91% | 62–103 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Houston
|
+23.7 | 145.9 | 91% | 56–71 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+21.5 | 144.1 | 91% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
South Alabama
|
+11.4 | 132.6 | 85% | 62–69 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
UT Martin
|
-0.4 | 140.8 | 44% | 68–79 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+3.5 | 130.9 | 65% | 56–66 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
UIC
|
-6.6 | 146.0 | 22% | 72–66 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Creighton
|
+9.7 | 137.1 | 82% | 58–57 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Wichita State
|
+12.5 | 130.1 | 87% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Mississippi State
|
+12.5 | 149.8 | 87% | 50–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Minnesota
|
+12.8 | 142.2 | 87% | 71–79 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
North Texas
|
+13.0 | 128.6 | 85% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Drexel
|
+10.8 | 145.5 | 84% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Southern Miss
|
-5.8 | 125.7 | 27% | 62–51 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+1.5 | 146.9 | 59% | 70–60 | ✗ |
Alabama
@
Memphis
|
-3.2 | 157.3 | 34% | 78–92 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+23.0 | 139.9 | 91% | 44–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Texas
|
+24.3 | 137.7 | 91% | 31–63 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Boise State
|
+7.2 | 140.3 | 75% | 60–72 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Oregon State
|
+0.7 | 141.0 | 52% | 71–64 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Pacific
|
+0.3 | 136.8 | 50% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Belmont
|
+5.7 | 143.0 | 71% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Georgetown
|
+5.0 | 155.1 | 71% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.