Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +27 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -20.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -18.6 (+8.4) | 132.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -16.2 (+10.8) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -17.5 (+9.5) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -17.9 (+9.1) | 130.6 (-3.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#52) | -7.7 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#60) | -2.26 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#45) | -3.28 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#68) | 0.388 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 39.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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