Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Under |
| Money | UNC -550 FUR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.8 (+3.2) | 150.9 (-15.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.0 (+2.0) | 158.4 (-23.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.2 (+1.8) | 158.3 (-23.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.6 (+1.4) | 157.3 (-22.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#39) | 4.0 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#42) | 1.25 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#40) | 1.39 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#31) | 0.557 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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