Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -25.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -25.1 (-12.1) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -21.5 (-8.5) | 144.1 (-7.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -22.5 (-9.5) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -24.5 (-11.5) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-7 |
| Home | 18-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#19) | -6.9 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#27) | 0.46 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#26) | 0.13 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#161) | 0.478 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 44.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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