Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +14 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -4.8 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.1 (+16.1) | 157.6 (+12.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.6 (+16.6) | 160.2 (+9.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.2 (+17.2) | 157.3 (+12.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.5 (+16.5) | 156.9 (+13.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2022 | ALA 91 – 88 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#48) | 18.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#137) | 3.17 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#105) | 4.42 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#126) | 0.750 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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