Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -12.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -13.0 (-15.0) | 141.3 (-5.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -10.2 (-12.2) | 140.3 (-4.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -10.9 (-12.9) | 140.9 (-4.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -10.3 (-12.3) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#109) | -4.1 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#61) | -2.01 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#57) | -2.32 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#42) | 0.426 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.