Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -16.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -13.1 (-3.1) | 126.0 (-6.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.6 (-1.6) | 123.9 (-3.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.0 (-3.0) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -13.1 (-3.1) | 128.0 (-8.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2023 | UNT 75 – 55 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#83) | -5.7 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#136) | -1.83 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#122) | -1.94 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#104) | 0.419 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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