Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 115.0 Over |
| Money | UNT -235 SHSU +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +20 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -4.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 108.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -5.4 (+14.6) | 121.2 (+8.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -5.3 (+14.7) | 117.3 (+12.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -4.7 (+15.3) | 120.4 (+9.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -5.2 (+14.8) | 122.6 (+7.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | UNT 65 – 55 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#57) | 8.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#33) | 1.74 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#46) | 1.82 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#24) | 0.576 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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