Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -27.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -25.1 (-7.1) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -22.8 (-4.8) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -24.9 (-6.9) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -25.4 (-7.4) | 142.3 (-2.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#23) | -10.1 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#34) | -1.88 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#35) | -2.82 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#20) | 0.444 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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