Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -8.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -9.0 (+3.0) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -6.6 (+0.6) | 146.0 (-8.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -6.9 (+0.9) | 148.0 (-10.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -7.6 (+1.6) | 149.1 (-11.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#240) | 9.7 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#273) | 2.23 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#271) | 3.25 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#293) | 0.581 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 10.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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