Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +41 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -33.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -26.7 (+14.3) | 161.1 (+3.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.1 (+16.9) | 156.0 (+9.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -30.5 (+10.5) | 158.4 (+6.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -29.4 (+11.6) | 161.0 (+4.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#9) | -10.7 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#17) | -2.02 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#13) | -3.75 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#11) | 0.389 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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