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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–6 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.2 | 139.8 | 47% | 65–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 137.4 | 36% | 71–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 149.7 | 75% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 129.8 | 72% | 69–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.8 | 154.4 | 26% | 61–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 135.8 | 83% | 46–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 156.7 | 67% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 141.1 | 59% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.4 | 144.2 | 17% | 72–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 144.4 | 47% | 66–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 137.5 | 55% | 52–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 139.7 | 82% | 55–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 138.0 | 88% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 145.3 | 89% | 47–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 142.0 | 63% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.3 | 138.7 | 88% | 63–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.8 | 159.2 | 91% | 76–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 132.2 | 82% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 136.3 | 87% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 143.1 | 58% | 95–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.0 | 142.1 | 82% | 71–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 147.0 | 88% | 60–97 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 136.3 | 43% | 56–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 143.8 | 81% | 64–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.0 | 144.3 | 90% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 155.4 | 87% | 55–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.