Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -12.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -11.2 (+8.8) | 135.8 (-23.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -11.6 (+8.4) | 134.1 (-22.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -12.2 (+7.8) | 137.0 (-25.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -11.6 (+8.4) | 136.5 (-24.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#77) | -1.4 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#82) | -1.21 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#86) | -1.53 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#72) | 0.405 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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