Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -13.2 (+9.8) | 138.5 (+10.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -15.3 (+7.7) | 138.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -15.3 (+7.7) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -14.8 (+8.2) | 136.9 (+12.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#15) | 2.9 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#9) | 1.23 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.98 (#10) | 1.75 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#7) | 0.590 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 8.5% |
Game Analysis
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