Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +25 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -29.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -27.3 (-2.3) | 156.6 (+20.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -22.8 (+2.2) | 159.2 (+17.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -26.4 (-1.4) | 162.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -25.9 (-0.9) | 157.7 (+19.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 25.8 (#1) | 0.6 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.39 (#3) | 0.89 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.13 (#5) | 1.10 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#8) | 0.591 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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