Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | SIU -800 SEMO +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -12.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -10.7 (+14.3) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -10.4 (+14.6) | 133.4 (+1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -10.3 (+14.7) | 139.0 (-4.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -10.6 (+14.4) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | SIU 70 – 68 SEMO |
| Dec 3, 2020 | SIU 87 – 79 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#185) | -8.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#203) | -1.37 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#212) | -2.32 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#212) | 0.438 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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