Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.5 (+4.5) | 156.7 (-18.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -5.2 (+6.8) | 155.1 (-17.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.5 (+6.5) | 156.7 (-18.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -4.2 (+7.8) | 152.4 (-14.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2024 | SDST 75 – 55 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 18-0 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#88) | 5.3 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#215) | 1.06 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#185) | 1.02 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#261) | 0.566 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 43.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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