Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +135 SDST -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +20 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -1.9 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.5 (-18.5) | 150.9 (-20.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.8 (-18.2) | 149.7 (-19.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -1.7 (-18.3) | 151.0 (-21.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.2 (-17.8) | 153.9 (-23.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2021 | MOST 75 – 63 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 2.6 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#115) | 0.81 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#123) | 2.22 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#57) | 0.487 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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