We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Matthew Knight Arena · December 16, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -17.0 Home covered
O/U 140.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ORE +25 167 Won
Massey ORE -11.6 (+13.4)
Massey Totals 140.9 (+26.1)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 95%
Efficiency Plus ML ORE -15.3 (+9.7) 139.6 (+27.4) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -10.0 (+15.0) 142.1 (+24.9) 82%
Baseline ML ORE -10.7 (+14.3) 143.2 (+23.8) 82%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -9.6 (+15.4) 141.1 (+25.9) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2025 ORE 9469 PORT
Nov 13, 2024 ORE 8070 PORT
Dec 18, 2022 ORE 7856 PORT
Dec 19, 2020 ORE 8041 PORT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE PORT
Overall 20-15 19-15
Conference 11-9 7-7
Home 12-5 11-4
Away 6-6 6-9
Neutral 1-4 2-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 72.4
Avg Pts Against 70.3 73.0
Massey 3.3 (#112) -3.6 (#244)
Bradley-Terry 0.34 (#153) -0.43 (#219)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.00 (#122) -0.96 (#241)
RPI 0.521 (#139) 0.432 (#279)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE PORT
FG% 44.8% 43.2%
3PT% 33.9% 33.3%
REB / G 32.1 35.4
OREB / G 9.6 8.4
AST / TO 0.92 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.3%
TOV% 18.4% 20.4%
ORB% 30.1% 25.6%
FT Rate 23.1% 29.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 19.4%
DRB% 74.1% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.1% 18.5%

Game Analysis

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