And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Hamilton Gymnasium · December 16, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UCSD -4.5 Home covered
O/U 133.0 Under
Money DEN +165 / UCSD -190
Model Predictions
Spread Total DEN win
Actual DEN +8 120 Won
Massey UCSD -1.3 (+9.3) — —
Massey Totals — 132.2 (-12.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 23% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 8% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCSD -2.6 (+10.6) 132.9 (-12.9) 48% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UCSD -1.1 (+9.1) 136.3 (-16.3) 43% ✗
Baseline ML UCSD -1.3 (+9.3) 136.8 (-16.8) 50% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UCSD -0.6 (+8.6) 134.5 (-14.5) 47% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 7, 2023 UCSD 95 – 87 DEN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DEN UCSD
Overall 11-21 13-16
Conference 7-11 0-0
Home 6-7 9-4
Away 4-12 4-11
Neutral 1-2 0-1
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.6 68.4
Avg Pts Against 74.8 71.6
Massey -5.5 (#271) 0.5 (#166)
Bradley-Terry -1.82 (#303) 0.24 (#167)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.53 (#307) 0.89 (#127)
RPI 0.406 (#312) 0.513 (#152)
Shooting & Four Factors DEN UCSD
FG% 44.4% 45.7%
3PT% 35.9% 37.3%
REB / G 29.5 33.9
OREB / G 7.0 5.6
AST / TO 0.93 0.72
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 53.5%
TOV% 20.0% 22.1%
ORB% 21.6% 19.2%
FT Rate 20.5% 32.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.6% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 16.0%
DRB% 68.8% 78.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 14.9%

Game Analysis

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