Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | DEN +165 UCSD -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -1.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.6 (+10.6) | 132.9 (-12.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.1 (+9.1) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -1.3 (+9.3) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -0.6 (+8.6) | 134.5 (-14.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | UCSD 95 – 87 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#271) | 0.5 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#303) | 0.24 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#307) | 0.89 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#312) | 0.513 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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