Betting Lines
| Spread | WSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | WSU -12.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WSU -11.2 (-14.2) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WSU -10.6 (-13.6) | 143.8 (-18.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WSU -10.7 (-13.7) | 143.5 (-18.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WSU -11.5 (-14.5) | 141.9 (-16.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#26) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#95) | 2.10 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#84) | 2.31 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#91) | 0.639 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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