Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -1.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -2.6 (+11.4) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -3.6 (+10.4) | 142.0 (+0.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -3.6 (+10.4) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -3.1 (+10.9) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#296) | -4.7 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#201) | -0.54 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | -0.80 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#211) | 0.547 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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