Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +9 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -10.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.0 (+2.0) | 136.8 (-13.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.8 (+1.2) | 137.2 (-14.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -8.1 (+0.9) | 138.2 (-15.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.8 (+1.2) | 138.4 (-15.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#264) | -10.7 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#256) | -1.46 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#256) | -1.82 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#296) | 0.416 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 37.6% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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